Images on Oil Drum
If you clicked in to get larger images of two things I posted on The Oil Drum on Thursday, Blogger's photo service is down, so I'll post them here later.
They are on my Flickr page : http://www.flickr.com/photos/theoilceo/
posted by Oil CEO @ 9:58 AM
8 comments
8 Comments:
could you point me to the data you use? specifically in terms of the production/price graph, but more generally as well
I use all EIA data from their petroleum website. They update their excel spreadsheets every month for about half the material I use. Other data, they only update once a year, so I will occassionally extrapolate bits of data from yearly data-sets to fill-out monthly numbers I need.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html
Most of the tables I use are on this page. You have to click on the xls references on right to get them to open download prompt which will tell you name of files. Monthly I use t13, t14, t11a,t11b,t11c. These are the main ones for crude.
After that there is just alot of cutting and pasting and transposing since the EIA seems to group and list everything in the exact opposite way that one needs to work with it in.
Do you use excel? Let me know if this helps. If you've got an email drop I can send you some of my spreadsheets.
Oh, yeah...I use the BP yearly statistical review as well for running quick and dirty calculations on yearly numbers. They've got everything layed out as worksheets in one big file. That is available from their main page, I think.
I use SAS at work (university), so I was going to transfer it and get some more practice in with my outside interest/PO.
I havent had time to check the site out yet, but thanks and I'll let you know how it goes.
...I posted lower down, but thought you may not see it
Oil CEO,
Bill here. I like your analysis.
IMHO $90 = $4/Gal. So what does that imply... for every $30 rise = $1 gas rise? I have also been reviewing TOD and all they seem to focus on is supply. I think we need to think about demand. I think we have to move beyond the peak oil debate. Its over. We have to move to the economic and political implications of steadily increasing prices. Where is the "break" point? That was my thought when I reviewed your oil vs GDP chart. The maximum oil got to is 8% of GDP. I think that implies $120 oil today (?). So when do we get there?
At what point does the price of oil affect our "way of life"
How essential is oil really?
We are going to find out, but I think we need to think through the possible scenarios.
"demand destruction" is a buzz word, but what does it really mean?
At what point do supply and demand reach stability - given steadily decreasing supply?
Then we need to look at countries that have been (and are) 100% oil importers. Like Japan and Europe. How are they reacting?
Business Week had a good article last week on % of driving done for work, leisure, etc in the US. Only about 25% is work. Most driving in the US is "non-essential" ... so do we all just switch to scooters like Italy?
The US imports about 11M barrels a day, or about 70% of consumption. At $70 thats a 281B deficit a year. People seem OK with it now. If it doubles, is that OK? How long do we have till that happens?
Personally I think the political implications are dire. We are heading towards a brick wall, but we don't know when we will hit it. The US will be forced to dramatically revise its global defence strategy, which will have a geopolitical fallout I cannot even imagine. When I think it through, the only rational response is to buy gold. I feel like Henny Penny. I have seen some discussions that say this is an overreaction. People have been looking for an excuse to forcast "doomsday" for hundreds of years. Is this just that? another fantasy doomsday scenario that modern ingenuity and economics will overcome?
CEO, what do you think?
I think you ask all the right questions. I'll repond shortly.
Hi, Oil CEO. I read your excellent posts on theoildrum, and I have put one of your charts on my blog at redhotresources.blogspot.com.
You'll find the particular post where I use your chart at http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/2006/08/scary-freakin-oil-chart.html
I credited you in the text; I don't know how to put a credit line underneath a photo in blogger. Any ideas?
Don't worry about it. You've got my blog linked on your page. Posting the graph is credit enough.
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