War Without Victory

Yesterday, I saw the first actual mention of an international force that would be deployed in Southern Lebanon. At least it was the first time I saw such a thing. It was in the New York Times. I think it was all of one sentence long. It suggested that France would be providing a large number of the 15 to 20,000 troops envisioned. Previous to this, that's all anybody was doing – "envisioning" things. Now they are actually talking about things. I guess this is progress if a cease-fire is the goal.

While there is much talk of civilian deaths, "proportionality," and the horrors of war, nothing will actually happen until somebody "does" something about it. The two parties directly involved in this conflict, Israel and Hizbollah, have stated consistently and repeatedly what their goals and intentions are – and these intentions are clearly at odds with each other. So what you are going to see is this conflict continuing much as it has been for at least two more weeks. That is, unless there is some monumental change in some other factor that is effecting this situation. Some unknown factor, which I haven't seen anybody even mention. Some surprise. I don't see either side tiring of the fight in the next two weeks.

The UN typically acts slowly. It could be argued that the more severe the crisis, the slower it acts. I don't see any way that any type of a cessation of hostilities can happen for at least two weeks after an international force is authorized. What will be the make-up of the force? How will it get there? How will it deploy? And most importantly, what will its rules-of-engagement be?

While it is fine and good to debate what or who is right or wrong, or what "should" be, the real issue is what will actually happen on the ground.

The history of the conflict in Bosnia in the 1990's comes to mind. If it serves as any type of a indicator, we have a long way to go.

It makes no sense to talk about a cease-fire or "peace" as if it could happen at any time by some vague wave of a magic wand. There won't be any cease-fire for a minimum of two weeks. I'll throw out August 16th as a date. I have to be realistic, I fully expect even this date to be delayed.

Steven Erlanger reported the following in a piece today in the NYT Online:

Giora Eiland, Israel’s national security adviser under former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, predicts a solution in the next week or so “that is far from Israel’s original intent.”

He sees a political package negotiated at the United Nations that includes an exchange of Lebanese prisoners, with Israel regaining its two soldiers; a security zone in southern Lebanon under the control of a multinational force; an Israeli promise not to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty; and “a general understanding or commitment by the Lebanese government to be responsible for Hezbollah’s behavior.”

But “the most important thing will be missing from a deal,’’ he said, “the dismantling of the military capacity of Hezbollah.”