Oil vs. The Stock Market
posted by Oil CEO @ 7:48 AM
1 comments
Oil CEO
Bringing you thew world of energy consumption. Charts, quotes, links, numbers, Graphs, Investing, Peak Oil, Data, Analysis. Focusing on the countries, the companies, and the people.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
Previous Posts
- Crude Oil Production 2002-2005
- Oil Production 2001-2005
- 2006 Crude Oil Price Forecast
- Stocks for the 2006 Commodities crunch
- Angolan production - Kizomba A and B
- Oil Prices 1998-2005
- Angola article in the Boston Globe
- Nigerian Gas Flares
- Natural Gas Prices 2000-2005
- Interview with 'Syriana' screenwriter
1 Comments:
'Lo bro,
I'd guess oil prices are in a funny kind of limbo ATM. They want to drop (and the reserves data supports that) but they feel they daren't. The somewhat illusory aspect of quoted US oil stocks is ignored, and the markets are not sure how to price the current apparent US surplus of supply against geopolitical risks. Expect volatility, the probability x extent of upside spikes is greater than downside.
Current range is $60 to $62 (WTI Nymex), any excursions beyond that need to be understood. I don't expect the price to drop below $56, a soon increase above $66 requires a geopolitical nudge.
The price come October will be above $70, then it becomes a battle twixt demand and recession, and I don't yet know how that plays.
Your horoscope says: avoid journeys in light planes over dubious areas ;) (could be I'm a bit late on that, but I was never hot on astrology).
Post a Comment
<< Home